The chip next to your number
Your expenditure estimate carries a confidence label that reflects one thing: how much recent logging backs it up.
- Initial — the estimate is still mostly the setup calculation. The algorithm hasn't seen enough of your logged days to have an opinion of its own yet.
- Refining — there's real data flowing in and the estimate is actively converging on your actual burn. Expect it to move during this stage; that's it working.
- Refined — your recent weeks are consistently logged and the estimate is resting on solid evidence. Changes from here tend to be small and meaningful.
- Paused — updates are on hold because recent data is too thin; the last confidence level is preserved underneath (see Why Your Expenditure Is Paused).
How to move up
Confidence is a direct function of logged days in the recent couple of weeks. A consistently logged week takes you from Initial into Refining; keep it up for about two weeks and you reach Refined. There's no trick beyond the two habits the whole system runs on: log your days, weigh in regularly.
Why it matters
The weekly check-in leans on the expenditure estimate to suggest new targets. The higher the confidence, the more those suggestions are grounded in your reality rather than a formula — early on, treat suggestions as directionally right; at Refined, they're as personal as this gets.